Over the last three years I posted two models that attempted to look into the future of Tesla and the correlating price.
I've updated the sheet to include all the different changes/events that have happened in the last 3 years to come up with a more inclusive (and complete) projection of TSLA thru 2025 based on the latest guidance from the company. To summarize:
- Tesla is guiding for 500k car units sold in 2018, 1m by 2020 (model reflects a more conservative approach at 80% of guidance).
- Since 3 years ago along with its purchase of Solar City, Tesla has announced new vehicles and products that it will be adding to its catalog. Including Model 3 (mid-size $35k sedan), these are Model Y (mid-size SUV), a Pick Up truck, a Semi Truck, a "Mini Bus", a solar roof, solar panels, battery storage, and a ride sharing business. All of these can be found in Tesla's Master Plan, Part Deux post.
- Tesla is projecting its Energy division to be as large as its car/transportation division, with an S curve growth (i.e. exponential) in the coming months.
Based on these, I've create a yearly chart of my projected units sold by category, revenue, and expected GM%. Quick note:
- I'm projecting the Tesla Freight (semi truck) and Bus to be a service model, not one where companies are expected to purchase the truck or bus outright (i.e. Tesla becomes a 3PL provider with fully autonomous trucks). I've modeled these on 100% margin on an expected profit amount that I think they'll be able to draw from each unit on a yearly basis.
- I have no idea what the per-unit price of the storage business extrapolates to, so I attempted to model it based on a % of total business. Don't pay too much attention to the unit figures under the storage business.
I'm setting a price target of $733 using 2021 figure for revenue of $91.7bn. You can use this same exercise for any of the figures on the model (i.e. if you want to assuming price based on 2025 revenue, you can apply the same math above to arrive at a stock price). I'm assuming the following:
- 10% EBITDA to Revenue ratio based on guidance from Elon Musk on one of their 2015 earnings calls. I'm using this to remove the assumption that Tesla will forever be in maximum growth mode (i.e. reinvesting all profits back into the company)
- A P/E ratio of 15
- 20% discount based on risks (Model 3 launch, macro environment, etc.)
Feedback - GO!
Submitted April 17, 2017 at 09:59AM by farzyness http://ift.tt/2pqblhG
