https://www.ft.com/content/49d0229e-73c7-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601
For those that don't have subscription to the FT, the article describes that the yields on the JPMorgan short and intermediate term indices inverted for the first time since 2007. However, the yield curves for the underlying countries are still positive sloping. The inversion was largely to do rising treasury yield due to the fed rate hikes while the rest of the world kept rates steady on the long end. Also, the maturity composition of treasuries is heavily tilted towards the shorter end, so the fed rate hikes are more impactful.
IMO, its hard to say if this is an indication of an impending recession. I have read research that yield curves tend to only work for the U.S. and Germany.
Submitted June 20, 2018 at 12:31PM by HellaCrunchy https://ift.tt/2K6mawB
