Recent betting on Polymarket shows a sharp increase in confidence that Donald Trump will win the U.S. election, with his odds rising to 62%, while Harris lags behind at just 38%. Other betting markets are also shifting in Trump's favor.
Since these bets involve real money, many believe they offer a more accurate prediction than traditional polls. Even Elon Musk has praised betting markets for this reason, saying, More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.
However, the situation is more complicated than it appears. An investigation by The Wall Street Journal revealed that the surge in Trump's odds may not be the result of organic betting activity. Instead, it could be a mirage created by a small group of just four Polymarket accounts that have collectively funneled around $30 million in cryptocurrency into bets favoring Trump.
"There's strong reason to believe these accounts are controlled by the same entity," said Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that studied the accounts.
These accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—all received funds through Kraken, a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, according to Arkham's analysis. The accounts operate in a coordinated manner, placing frequent and increasingly large bets on Trump, and all were created between June and this month.
Most of the money from these accounts has been placed on straightforward bets that Trump will win the presidency. However, they've also made significant wagers on Trump taking key swing states like Pennsylvania and even on him winning the popular vote, despite the long odds.
While $30 million may seem like a hefty amount, it's enough to influence the odds on Polymarket without being a major expense for a wealthy individual aiming to sway perceptions ahead of the election, explained Adam Cochran, managing partner at venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures. "It's by far the most efficient political advertising one can buy," he added.
Cochran, an experienced crypto investor who has been monitoring the situation on Polymarket, believes this betting spree is designed to create an illusion of momentum for Trump as Election Day approaches. Even if Trump loses, favorable odds in betting markets could be used to fuel claims that the election was stolen, Cochran said. Cochran describes himself as a right-leaning voter but is supporting Harris.
Polymarket is currently investigating the activity in its election markets with help from external experts, according to someone familiar with the matter.
Submitted October 18, 2024 at 06:18AM by Gofighting777 https://ift.tt/25Gx6EZ
