Or would bonds (even treasuries) have defaulted at that point, because it would imply the economy has been so poor, or even a societal collapse?
If so, how much could bonds outperform?
In other words, how bad would things have to get (as measured by the equity market) for "risk-free" to not actually be risk-free?
I am not interested in answers like equities always beat bonds in the long run - this is specifically about engaging with the tail risks and when the black swans start kicking in. Any studies based on when different countries have defaulted would be interesting. Interesting qualitative answers are welcome too as will be hard to put numbers on anything!
Edit: for clarity, I effectively mean a single bond which matures in the 2070s, and the issuer must effectively pay for using their revenues at that time, rather than a rolling portfolio of bonds.
Submitted August 11, 2023 at 03:34AM by harmoniousmedley https://ift.tt/17FuKre
