👉 ECB meeting next week
👉 Here's a chronological summary of every ECB speaker's comments since their last meeting in May
👉 A PDF version will be available on the weekend (see links in bio)
👉 Here we go...
Schnabel (Neutral) 2023-6-7 T-2: We have more ground to cover on rates, will depend on data how much more rates will have to increase, we need to see convincing evidence that inflation returns to our 2% target in a sustained and timely manner, a peak in underlying inflration would not be enough to declare victory, the impact of our policy on inflation is expected to peak in 2024, there is great uncertainty over the strength and speed of this process.
Knot (Hawk) 2023-6-7 T-2: The outlook for policy rates after July is unclear, will become more data-dependent after rate hikes in June and July, should not hesitate to keep raising rates if inflation stays high, peak interest rates will have to be maintained for a long time to keep inflation in check, upward risks to inflation are expected to dominate in years to come, prolonged tightening might still lead to stress in financial markets, inflation expectations in markets seem optimistic.
Makhlouf (n/a) 2023-6-7 T-2: Once we've reached a peak on rates they are likely to stay there for a while, not going to say how long that will be, rate hikes beyond summer would be a question of judgement, I'd be interested how the people pricing rate cuts by the end of the year are coming to that conclusion.
Knot (Hawk) 2023-6-6 T-3: Will keep tightening policy until we see inflation returning to 2% but this must be done step-by-step, inflation is still way too high but the worst is behind us, seeing first signs that policy tightening is being transmitted to the real economy.
Nagel (Hawk) 2023-6-5 T-4: Several more rate hikes are still necessary, not certain rates will peak this summer, rates must be held until there is no doubt inflation is returning to 2% in the near term, underlying price pressures remain far too high and show little signs of abating, cautiously optimistic about German growth prospects over the rest of the year.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-6-5 T-4: No clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked, price pressures remain strong, our rate hikes are being transmitted forcefully to financing conditions, full effects of our monetary policy measures are starting to materialize, it is very likely we will stop all reinvestments in APP.
Vujcic (n/a) 2023-6-5 T-4: Inflation risks are tilted to the upside, wage pressures are still very lively.
Makhlouf (n/a) 2023-6-2 T-7: Likely to see another rate hike at the next meeting, beyond probable hikes in June and July the picture is a lot less clear, inflation fall is very welcome but not definitive and underlying pressures are still quite strong.
Panetta (n/a) 2023-6-2 T-7: We have not reached the end of the rate hike cycle but we aren't far away from it, inflation is too high but there is no reason to worry, now is not the time to be too hasty raising rates, the debate will soon shift from level of interest rates to that of maintaining them over time, cannot rule out a technical recession in the Eurozone, committed to getting inflation back to 2% target.
Vasle (n/a) 2023-6-2 T-7: More rate hikes needed to get inflation to 2% target, core inflation remains high and persistent.
Rehn (Neutral) 2023-6-1 T-8: The monetary policy journey is not over yet, core inflation must slow before mulling easing, the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long, a lasting rise in inflation expectations is an upside risk to inflation, the lags and the strength of policy transmission to the real economy remain uncertain.
Villeroy (Neutral) 2023-6-1 T-8: Upcoming rate hikes will be marginal, rate hikes are beginning to have an impact on inflation, we will bring inflation back to 2% by 2025.
Kazaks (Hawk) 2023-6-1 T-8: It is hard to say where interest rates will peak but rates will stay at their peak for a while.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-6-1 T-8: A big part of our journey to raise rates has been done but there is still some way to go, recent inflation data are positive but still far from target.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-6-1 T-8: We need to continue with rate hikes until we are sufficiently confident that inflation is on track to return to 2% in a timely manner, we cannot say that we are satisfied with the inflation outlook, a period of catch-up wage growth need not cause unduly persistent inflation over time, rate hikes are already feeding forcefully into bank lending conditions.
Villeroy (Neutral) 2023-5-31 T-9: It is quite likely that inflation has passed its peak in France, perseverance counts for more than speed regarding monetary policy, will bring inflation down to 2% between now and 2025, markets are absorbing QT smoothly and positively.
Müller (Hawk) 2023-5-31 T-9: Very likely that we will hike by 25 bps more than once, probably too optimistic to see rate cuts in early 2024, core inflation shows no signs of slowing yet.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-31 T-9: Inflation data today and yesterday has been positive, victory over inflation is not there yet but the trajectory is correct.
Visco (Dove) 2023-5-31 T-9: Must proceed with the correct degree of graduality now that rates are in restrictive territory, longer-term inflation expectations remain in line with the definition of price stability.
Centeno (n/a) 2023-5-31 T-9: Spain's CPI reading shows that Europe's inflation is easing, doesn't see a risk of monetary policy overshooting, reversal of supply shock should slow inflation.
Simkus (Hawk) 2023-5-30 T-10: Expects a 25 bps rate hike in June and July, September is too early to say.
De Cos (Dove) 2023-5-29 T-11: Policy tightening is well underway but based on the information currently available to us we have some way to go, interest rates will have to remain in restrictive territory for an extended period of time.
Wunsch (Neutral) 2023-5-27 T-13: We hiked 400 bps and we might have to do more, we have more ground to cover, real rates are still quite low, if fiscal policy remains supportive then monetary policy will have to do more to get inflation under control.
Lane (n/a) 2023-5-26 T-14: The ECB shouldn't predict where rate hikes will end, no sense of certainty on the terminal rate, uncertainty in inflation dynamics is high, food inflation will reverse later this year, energy price fall will feed into core prices but timeframe is uncertain, there is some upside risks to wage growth.
Makhlouf (n/a) 2023-5-26 T-14: My lead option is to hike rates in June and July, open about subsequent decisions, haven't seen wage settlements that raise concerns on a Eurozone level, very relaxed about market pricing of rates.
Vujcic (n/a) 2023-5-26 T-14: It is questionable if we will be able to get to 2% inflation in the next two years, inflation momentum is still persistent.
Villeroy (Neutral) 2023-5-25 T-15: Rates should peak in the next three meetings, rates are clearly in restrictive territory, we have completed most of the rate hike journey, monitoring the passthrough of "massive" past rate hikes.
Knot (Hawk) 2023-5-25 T-15: We need at least two more rate hikes, both should be 25 bps each, totally open-minded on what happens with rates after summer, should stay put for a significant period of time, market pricing of rate cuts is overly optimistic, headline inflation peak behind us but not sure if at peak of underlying inflation, most of the impact of the ECB's tightening is still in the pipeline.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-25 T-15: Wages pose upside risk to inflation outlook, fiscal policy is an important factor for inflation, governments should roll back related support measures as the energy crisis fades, banking tensions add to downside inflation risks.
Panetta (n/a) 2023-5-24 T-16: The GC is to decide in October whether to launch preparation phase to develop and test a digital Euro, the ECB would issue a digital Euro but not distribute it.
Nagel (Hawk) 2023-5-23 T-17: Several more rate hikes are needed to tame inflation, will need to maintain peak rate for a sufficiently long time until inflation has fallen sustainably.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-23 T-17: The non-bank financial sector remains particularly exposed to asset price corrections and credit risk should corporate sector fundamentals deteriorate substantially, more concerned about conflict between monetary and fiscal policy than about financial instability.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-5-23 T-17: Rate are yet to reach sufficiently restrictive levels, rates are to stay restrictive as long as necessary.
Villeroy (Neutral) 2023-5-22 T-18: The primary question today is not how much further to hike rates but how large the pass-through is of what is already in the pipe, expects that we will be at the terminal rate not later than September, how long we maintain rates is now more important than the precise terminal level, we can hike or pause at the next three meetings, in the current tightening cycle the lag in policy transmission may be at the upper end of 1-2 year range.
De Cos (Dove) 2023-5-22 T-18: The ECB still has some way to go to tight monetary policy, interest rates will have to remain in restrictive territory for extended periods to achieve inflation goal.
Lane (n/a) 2023-5-22 T-18: The markets believe that inflation will come back to 2% in the foreseeable future.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-5-21 T-19: We are not done yet, we are not pausing based on the information I have today, the inflation outlook is too high for too long, we have covered a large chunk of the journey towards taming inflation and bringing it back to our target, so many things can go wrong that we cannot give forward guidance.
Schnabel (Neutral) 2023-5-19 T-21: The ECB can continue to do whatever is needed to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner, wage growth has picked up substantially and as a result there are concerns about second-round effects on inflation, financial stability is a precondition for price stability and vice versa, we have a clear mandate of price stability, inflation expectations are stubbornly high, it seems fiscal policy is too expansionary.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-5-19 T-21: ECB will be courageous to take needed decisions to bring inflation back to 2%, we are heading towards more delicate decisions going forward, we should not trade off price stability and financial stability, will do whatever is necessary to deliver price stability.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-18 T-22: There is still scope to keep raising rates but most of the tightening has already been done, does not know what the end point is going to be.
Rehn (Neutral) 2023-5-17 T-23: Need to see core CPI slow substantially.
De Cos (Dove) 2023-5-17 T-23: The ECB is getting near the end of its tightening cycle, transmission of monetary policy remains strong.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-17 T-23: Concerns are mounting about the outlook for commercial real estate loans, Eurozone banks may benefit less from higher rates than expected.
Holzmann (Hawk) 2023-5-16 T-24: We need to go beyond a 4% interest rate to fight inflation, would have preferred a 50 bps hike at the May meeting, core inflation is unlikely to slow much more this year, hikes above 25 bps are probably not possible now, we shouldn't pause hikes until we reach 4%.
Makhlouf (n/a) 2023-5-16 T-24: We have lost a degree of trust, that affects what we should be doing with our decision making, we should do more in terms of thinking about the audience we're talking to.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-14 T-26: We have now entered the home stretch of our monetary policy tightening path, we are returning to normalcy with 25 bps steps.
Kazimir (n/a) 2023-5-14 T-26: The ECB may need to keep raising rates longer than previously thought, convinced there are more meetings ahead where we will decide on raising rates, would also be satisfied with a 50 bps hike but 25 bps is a return to normal, the key point is that core inflation is still creeping up and that's proof we haven't solved the problem yet.
Nagel (Hawk) 2023-5-12 T-28: Latest rate hike won't be the last, inflation is still too high and too strong, need to be sure that the inflation wave ends.
Nagel (Hawk) 2023-5-11 T-29: Meeting-by-meeting approach is the right path for the ECB, nothing is off the table for the September meeting, moving closer to restrictive territory but not there yet, need at least a year-and-a-half to see core inflation closer to 2%.
De Cos (Dove) 2023-5-11 T-29: We are now closer to the final cycle of rate hikes.
De Guindos (Dove) 2023-5-11 T-29: There can be more rate hikes, how many depends on the data, rate decision had a very high consensus, don't believe anybody who names a terminal rate, markets can be wrong about terminal rates, inflation will undoubtedly fall, worried about core inflation and services, underlying inflation will fall too, we have to assess the impact of interest rate hikes on financing conditions.
Villeroy (Neutral) 2023-5-10 T-30: We have travelled most of the way on rate hikes, what's still lying ahead is "more marginal", it is the future impact of past rate hikes that should for the most part allow us to reach out objective within two years.
Nagel (Hawk) 2023-5-10 T-30: We are not done hiking yet, approaching the final stretch of rate hikes, still work to be done on core inflation, we are holding the course on monetary policy.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-5-10 T-30: We still have more ground to cover in the fight against inflation, have to move in a very deliberate and decisive way, there are factors that can induce significant upside risks to the inflation outlook, have to be extremely attentive to potential risks and particularly wage increases.
Centeno (n/a) 2023-5-10 T-30: ECB rates to remain high for some time after rate peak, rates should start to come down some time in 2024, interest rate adjustment is still underway.
Sources (n/a) 2023-5-10 T-30: Bloomberg: some ECB members are saying a September hike may be needed.
Stournas (n/a) 2023-5-10 T-30: Barring any drastic changes rate hikes will be over this year, we are close to the end of the tightening cycle, cannot say how many more rate hikes are still needed, may possibly return to very low rates again but don't know that yet.
Schnabel (Neutral) 2023-5-9 T-31: No doubt that we will have to do more on inflation, rate cuts are highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Kazaks (Hawk) 2023-5-9 T-31: Rate-hiking may not be finished in July, doing too little remains the greater danger, bet on spring 2024 rate cuts is "significantly premature", not impossible for the ECB to hike or pause as the Fed cuts.
Nagel (Hawk) 2023-5-9 T-31: Interest rates should rise further, could have imagined a 50 bps hike at the last meeting but is okay with the 25 bps, the market is not always right about the ECB terminal rate.
Kazimir (n/a) 2023-5-9 T-31: Slowing hikes lets the ECB go higher for longer, there's plenty of ground to cover, according to available statistics the ECB will need to maintain raising rates for longer than expected, projections point to September as the earliest time to judge the effectiveness of measures and if inflation is moving towards the target.
Vasle (n/a) 2023-5-9 T-31: Inflation is becoming increasingly stubborn, our job on inflation is not yet complete, we need to see a change in core inflation, more rate hikes will be required, avoiding a recession is possible.
Vujcic (n/a) 2023-5-9 T-31: More rate hikes will be required to return inflation to target.
Knot (Hawk) 2023-5-8 T-32: Rate hikes are starting to have an impact but more will be needed, policy works with a certain delay so the biggest effects of what we've done so far are still in the pipeline, supported last week's 25 bps hike, could support further hikes above 5% if needed.
Lane (n/a) 2023-5-8 T-32: There is still a lot of momentum in food and core inflation.
Villeroy (Neutral) 2023-5-5 T-35: Favours smaller rate hikes, change in rate increase rhythm is an important signal, there will likely be several more hikes but we have done the essential, our goal is to win the fight against inflation without triggering a recession.
Müller (Hawk) 2023-5-5 T-35: It is prudent to allow previous hikes to make an impact.
Simkus (Hawk) 2023-5-5 T-35: Interest rates are not high enough and will need to be raised further, we will keep rates high for a sufficiently long time to get inflation back to 2%.
Visco (Dove) 2023-5-5 T-35: The peak of ECB interest rates may not be too far off, market's view of the terminal rate is "an important reference point" for the ECB, policy can only be moving towards higher rates, must proceed with caution, policy is being transmitted into the economy in an "energetic" way.
Lagarde (Dove) 2023-5-4 T-36: We know that we have more ground to cover, 25 bps hike had almost unanimous support, some suggested 50 bps and some said 25 bps but no one said no change, not making any commitment to rate cuts at any point, this is not a pause, very strong consensus around the path we chose, we are continuing the hiking process, this is a journey and we have not arrived yet, will continue to follow a data-dependent approach, reports from corporates regarding borrowing suggest that rates are restrictive, corporate demand for bank loans was "really, really down", price pressures remain strong, incoming information broadly supports medium-term outlook formed at the previous meeting, private domestic demand and consumption likely to remain weak, no longer says growth risks are to the downside.
Sources (n/a) 2023-5-4 T-36: Reuters: Some ECB policymakers see 2-3 rate hikes ahead, Holzmann was the lone holdout but didn't have a vote at the meeting, policymakers reached a deal on smaller hike in return for guidance for more hikes ahead and an APP wind down, policymakers don't see the need to sell APP bonds.
Submitted June 09, 2023 at 05:49AM by FXMacroGuy https://ift.tt/anMQdtH
