Rates for containerships (the ships which carry thousands of the 20-40’ boxes you seen on railroads and trucks) have been going ballistic the past 4-5 months, but the stock reactions have been mixed.
Link to containership rates: https://harpex.harperpetersen.com/harpexVP.do
I’m currently long about every name possible in the sector including $NMCI which I’ve owned for a bit over a year and doubled down hard into last summer at $0.70-$0.80.
Even after the huge surge in the stock price, the enterprise value to EBITDA valuation metric has barely moved since cash flows are being net debts down rapidly while 2021 projected EBITDA has nearly tripled.
Containerships aren’t like tankers and dry bulk vessels which normally just get 60-80 voyages. These ships are typically contracted for 1-2 or even 3+ years. So when we talk about 2021 EBITDA, they’ve already locked in about 80% of it and over 50% of 2022 rates.
I’ve covered the shipping sector extensively on Seeking Alpha for nearly 10 years and am also on Twitter (@mintzmyer). I figured I’d open up a conversation here and see if anyone is interested in the sector. $NMCI still trades for an unbelievable P/E of under 2x.
Nick First (@allthingsventured on Twitter) has recently written a new article on Navios Partners with his own financial projections:
Article on Navios Maritime Partners
I believe we’re just getting started here. For my disclosure, I’m long nearly every name in the space- $ATCO $CMRE $CPLP $DAC $MPCC (Oslo) $NMCI $NMM (they own most of $NMCI) and mostly recently: $ZIM.
I have about 10% of my wealth in $NMCI/$NMM. Average basis in NMCI is in the very low $1s after buying a lot this summer at 70-80c.
I’ve been a long time Reddit user, but I’ve never really posted much about stocks so please forgive the basic post. I’m happy to answer any questions- cheers!
Submitted January 31, 2021 at 11:23PM by c12mintz https://ift.tt/39BIDAF
