If you remembered my previous post, XERS was in the $2s, then $4, now close to $6 with its growth just getting started. My final PT is $36-$40, with the first being $13. Linked below is my DD posts and additional DD is posted.
First DD:
Now on to the reasoning behind double digits. The market cap at its current position, status and pipeline should be at $500-$750 million minimum. They have approximately $150 million cash, recently commercialized product(GVOKE) in the beginning of 2020, launch of their second product(Hypopen) in July 2020, four specialty drugs in Phase 4 studies (one on fast track status), and collaborations with Top Ten Big Pharma companies for their proprietary Xeri-Tech.
Sidetrack: Let me address the severe pullback due to an untitled letter. Context: Every Drug needs to properly state the risks associate with their problem and properly explain the market they are addressing in their TV commercial, apparently{ I use this word because XERS is contesting FDA's letter and believes nothing is wrong) Xeris did not do this properly. Its an easy fix, furthermore the ad ran in March and was discontinued, now the letter is released explaining the unnecessary overreaction and immediate push back into $4s. On our team at Fortune Alerts we have an executive FDA consultant with over 30 years of experience, and he laughed at the letter. First, he stated that all drug companies get these letters, and second states that this is not even a material problem at all as they need to change the wording of the commercial.
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Record High Gvoke Prescription Growth --> Last Week of July over 1,000 alone. Management has clearly stated that the goal is to steal prescriptions from the outdated legacy product, which has over 6,000 prescriptions A WEEK. Xers can easily get in a position to take roughly 5,000 prescriptions, which translates to $20+ million minimum a quarter. Covid disruptions are largely over, exponential prescription growth is imminent with their recently established commercial/sales infrastructure. Peak Sales estimate is $300 Million+, excluding their pipeline. Furthermore management stated that beyond Hypoglycemia, they are exploring options of utilizing Gvoke as a diagnostic aid which has $100 million potential.
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Confirmed from IR that they recently hired an " Inside Sales Team to cover the parts of the country where we do not have a rep", as of now their sales infrastructure is complete. Furthermore, their current sales forces has over 70 members focusing on driving prescription growth to existing 70% glucagon business. Not only will they steal from legacy scripts, but also expand the adoption of glucagon for Severe Hypoglycemia. 34 million Americans have diabetes, that means at MINIMUM 6 million should have emergency glucagon, according to prevalence of "severe lows".
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Pramlintide-Insulin--> GROUND BREAKING. Current technology inhibits the coformulation of Pramlintide and Insulin, however Xeris Technology(XeriSol/XeriJect) enables it. ONLY Xeris pharmaceuticals can combine both compounds for Type 1/2 blood sugar control. The current competitor is Humulin with $1.1bn in sales, and according to their Phase 2 their product "improved glucose control when compared to Humulin® R alone". This is very promising data, and they are currently looking for partner to manufacture.
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Diazepam. This is a treatment for the drug resistant and lifelong illness Dravet Syndrom and ARS. The competitor Diastat has sales over $100 million, according to Phase 1 XERS study "XeriSol IM diazepam exhibits greater overall exposure compared to Diastat". Direct to Phase 3 registration study in both pediatric and adult patients with epilepsy, and they are seeking a partner. Parts 2 and 4 are billion dollar propositions alone.
The team:
-CEO Sold both of his last companies for over $20 a share
-Acquisition skills and management experiences through CEO’s previous founding role in a LARGE consultancy firm that specializes in Pharma.
-CSO is a scientific genius not only through his books but all other companies lead to this(specializes in powder tech)
-other execs are from previously acquired companies, most of company is inside team If there was one team to lead a pharma company it would be them.
Top down analysis truly exemplifies their value, hope you guys see that. I can keep on adding more but I think you guys get the point. Here are links to my tweets which highlight specific parts of a recent interview:
https://twitter.com/FortuneMaster4/status/1297030699724267520?s=20
https://twitter.com/FortuneMaster4/status/1297034056098615296?s=20
This will get to double digits. this is an investment not a trade. EOY(probably sooner) this will hit double digits. For those of you serious investors who want to make money, take a look at it and don't miss it. Realistically anything under $7 will double, our team added at 2.50s, 3s, and 4.5s and will continue to add all the way until 6 then hold.
Submitted September 27, 2020 at 10:00PM by fortunemaster https://ift.tt/3mUIPQ5
