I have been very bearish since March, but was doing some self reflection, and wondering if anyone else is starting to think that the last bearish argument relies on a pretty bad second wave? A mild second wave won't bring economic shutdowns.
It seems hard to imagine a significant market downturn without a really bad second wave this winter. It doesn't seem like economic data can really get any worse after May barring more shutdowns, and it seems that any progress will be seen as a positive in this environment. Unemployment of 23% in June won't turn the market if it was 25% in May. Retail sales can't get worse since stores will actually be open. We can't get farther away from a vaccine, and even the most insignificant progress can pump the markets like a trillion dollars stimulus as we saw today.
I'm starting to feel like being a bear means hoping for a second wave. Before I was just telling myself it would take time for the economic shocks to be fully appreciated by the market. Now I think they are being appreciated, and investors are just writing off bad news at least until Q4. Any bears or former bears feel this way?
Submitted May 18, 2020 at 07:30PM by wofulunicycle https://ift.tt/36d3S8D
