Green, Red, or Flat? Here's some stuff happening tomorrow that will determine where we are headed to finish out the week.
- In coronavirus news, we hit 5,000+ deaths and 200k+ cases this evening. Also this is the first time we have had >1,000 deaths in a day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- Most if not all of the analysts saying we were at bottom a few days ago have crawled back into their holes or retracted their statements. JP Morgan 2 days ago: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/jpmorgan-says-the-market-rout-is-probably-past-its-worst-now vs JP Morgan yesterday: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/jpmorgan-am-says-it-s-too-early-to-buy-stocks-amid-virus-risks
- Auto sales numbers are out tomorrow. Bloodbath, maybe to no one's surprise but when you see it on paper, it's still...shocking. 35-50% drop in sales in March for all the big guys. Maybe all priced in, maybe not. March will likely be the worst month on record for the past 20+ years until, you know, April. Investors have to be wondering if even a million cars will move this month. Last year was 17 million and analysts have already downgraded estimates to 13.5 million despite good numbers in Jan and Feb. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/business/economy/auto-sales-coronavirus.html https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures/
- Last week's unemployment numbers come out tomorrow at 8:30 AM. From this article, it sounds like 4-5 million are expected, so any amount in either direction could swing things. It's hard to imagine it could be less than the 3.5 million reported last week, but we shall see. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/jobless-claims-will-be-huge-but-millions-more-are-expected.html
- This last one isn't a statistic, just an opinion, but it seems like most of the good news is priced in with the big stimulus package already passed and "QE Infinity and Beyond" not having the same ring. I also expect people to take May 1 as the reopening of the country with a bigger grain of salt this time around given the target keeps moving. Perhaps Washington can rustle up some good news (early talks on an infrastructure bill, for example), but they would need to haul ass to keep the markets green to end the week IMO. Appreciate any and all opinions (bring your facts to back it up!). Disclaimer: I don't have puts and I'm already 60% invested, 40% cash.
Submitted April 01, 2020 at 08:57PM by wofulunicycle https://ift.tt/2JtlDpA
