I’d like to have a serious discussion about where the housing market goes from here because I’m very conflicted. For this discussion please will you clarify if your thinking applies to available housing, new construction, commercial, REITs, mortgage lenders, or big banks. Yes yes there’s overlap. Just provide good context please. THE HOUSING MARKET IS SCREWED! The bear case: 1/3 of people lost there jobs. Of those remaining, their savings which are invested in securities just lost a big chunk of a potential down payment on a house. Despite low interest rates, no one can afford a house right now. In fact people will be looking to convert their existing house into cash to weather the storm. Housing prices will fall with oversupply.
ALL IN FTW, HOUSING IS ABOUT TO BLAST OFF! The bull case: Before the ‘crash’ it was a sellers market with pent up demand due to very low unemployment and possibly due to increased VRBO and air BnB participation. Some of that demand has withered but there are still buyers out there who are ready to take advantage of whatever Fed is offering. People are sick of their in laws and parents and they want to move out. Increases in rental demand == increases in housing.
Oil is down. Chinese goods are on sale. Therefore the cost in materials to build is down and builders will take advantage of that. The fed will make it so! Money for everyone to avoid the housing crash. No matter what it takes.
I look forward to your considered opinion.
Submitted April 11, 2020 at 07:00PM by SkyHigh27 https://ift.tt/2K1lGZS
