This is going to come across as extremely negative, but I welcome opposing opinions. This post is in the name of an educated debate. I see many people on this sub denying that the market won't rally back and I'd like to hear why.
China looks to have levelled off, however factories are told to use electricity even if not producing as that is how the gov't is declaring production capacity returning. Currently reporting around 40%. The supply chain has been and still is in a massive hole from China the last 2 months, and now with the spread in other countries, company efficiency and consumer spending will fall and continue the supply chain disruption. Deaths were initially estimated around 2.3%, that number is rising to 3%+ but it's not even the deaths or # of infected, its the economic impact such as consumer spending and events getting cancelled, medical systems being overwhelmed and with China sucking up the supplies the world is in for a massive shortage. All of these factors trickling through such as unemployment to mortgage defaults, bankruptcies, etc will crash the global economy. Keep in mind that there is a lag from when this all flows through society.
I honestly just don't think there are a lot of positives in this. I mean really, the ONLY escape from this imploding human society is warm weather in 2-3 months or an expedited vaccine. Containment isn't being taken seriously anywhere due to economic fallout. China lagged their efforts initially but played it fast and hard in catching up. Even now the numbers are probably being faked as to not spook the population back at work. However if we take them as an example, their medical system was overwhelmed BADLY and the WHO clearly stated they were more medically adaptive than any other country could be. Not to mention the containment measures they enacted which helped. Imo, we are objectively FUCKED. I'd love to hear otherwise though as I have yet to come across convincing opinions that doesn't result in a collapse.
Submitted March 01, 2020 at 08:04PM by Ostnic https://ift.tt/2I6J7Aj
