After CNBC told Y'all that lil regional one month report "put a dent in" the rate cut case they'd also like to report expectations have shifted down to 70% chance of a 50bips cut.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/now-the-market-thinks-the-fed-could-make-an-even-deeper-cut-to-rates-later-this-month.html

I mean real talk market expectations are pointing to 50 bips whuch I think is a bit much but this goes to show you that just because /r/investing upvotes a story to the front page doesn't mean institutional money regards it as remotely important.

So here's CME's implied probability of a cut based on futures pricing. It's a good gauge of current sentiment. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

I'm not sure where CNBC got 70% from as I'm seeing 58/41ish right now but it was closer to 40/60 for 50 bips/25 bips this morning so expectations of a deeper cut have certainly gone up. Maybe it spiked earlier, maybe CNBC is just letting the interns do everything, who knows?

Submitted July 18, 2019 at 06:44PM by MasterCookSwag https://ift.tt/2JCfM25