I've found that I am much better at buying and holding when I stop looking at the news and stop trying to think I know more about the market. Right now the two biggest things keeping me from moving all my poker chips across to a few funds (VTSAX, BNDW, and/or VWELX) is the :
1.) Market chatter about the 'coming recession' and,
2.) The study of Japan's stagnation of 20 years. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)) )
I was hoping to ask the minds that be here in /r/investing what their opinion is about 10, 15, or even 20 years of market stagnation like Japan happening here in the US. In 20 years, I can guarantee my money doubles with a bond from TreasuryDirect.gov - but after accounting for 20 years of inflation against my investment I suppose that's really pretty shitty ROI. Is there a reason the US Markets will be immune to an event similar to Japan from 1991 to 2010? For buy and hold mentality, you buy in and assume that yes, indeed, that stock or fund will be worth more than it is now in 10 years - but there has to be a certain percentage it is higher for me to commit. Why? Because Bonds and CD's can be found to steadily pay 3.1%-4% (Ally 5-Yr CD, Vanguard's BSV fund, iShare HYG fund).
I think if there is a year of two of stocks dropping that I would have a hard time buying in after seeing such large drops - even though in the back of my head I know they are on sale. However, I would be more apt to do this if I had a cash/savings/cd/bond reserve like I do now which keeps me from just going 90-100% stocks.
TL;DR
For buy and hold people, is it best to just go all in assuming you feel there will be a dip of 30-45% in the next couple years? How do you tune out everyone/everything and just do that and then not have regret when that dip you thought was coming shows up?
Submitted April 10, 2019 at 09:26AM by AtypicNic http://bit.ly/2D4aM2A
