Stated equity at time of chapter 11 filing was ~$20B ($71.4B in assets - $51.7B in liabilities). Let's do the math, liabilities:
- $21.7B in debt
- $30B in wildfire claims (actual submitted claims are probably closer to $35B atm looking at prime clerk.)
- $5.5B in senior DIP financing
- $1B in legal fees (last BK was ~$400 million IIRC, and that was almost 20 years ago).
- $2.3B in proposed fire mitigation for the year (PGE's number, I think they spent that much on fire mitigation in total for the past 4-5 years).
That leaves ~$10.9B in equity, which is about $20/share (with 516m in common shares, not considering preferred, that's $10.3B) price target barring other costs. Half of the wildfire liabilities (estimated at $16.5B) are Camp Fire alone which the recent WSJ article lays at their feet. To go above $20 there'd need to be a reduction in other liabilities or significant increase in rates/bailout, most of which are fixed other than wildfire claims, with 11 of the 17 fires already being determined to be PGE's fault for 2017 alone. That's without any other fines, penalties, damages, or costs.
Could this go higher? Sure why not, this is the little piece of shit stock that could. Is there a good reason for it to go higher?
Submitted February 27, 2019 at 08:27PM by louieanderson https://ift.tt/2BUhcke
