A few months ago, when the markets were going up, people mentioning that maybe after 10 years of bull market a bear market might become more likely, they were shut up and being told the usual stuff, time in the market beats timing the market, there is no reason to think there will be a downturn, etc. etc.
Now that stocks are down 10-15% literally everybody seems to be convinced that there will be a 2008-like recession. Why? It could just be like in 2011 or 2016, when we went down around 15-20% max and then up. Why doesn't anyone seem to even consider this scenario that is at least as likely?
In reality, the sub really reacts like a typical emotional investor. When the market is up, everybody's convinced it will go up, when it's down, everybody's convinced it will go down. It was the same thing in the smaller dips during the year, people were also being convinced we were heading towards a recession for a few days—except it was more short-lived.
Honestly, we have no idea if the market will be 20% up or 20% down in a few months. Nobody can predict that. So why don't people try to consider all scenarios?
Submitted December 24, 2018 at 09:34AM by loulan http://bit.ly/2BOf7Wr
