https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c1pTDxl6KMD5s_L1s6yoMeB2bpN1jp0l/view
I'm a full time investor for a family office and I delivered +1100%ish the past 10 years. I did it with a Sharpe around 1.5 and a correlation of 0.16 to the S&P 500. I'm up this year , and this month of Dec.
The US markets are getting increasingly harder to beat. Everyone is either a passive indexer, a high speed machine or another professional. I think better opportunities lie abroad: in Japan, Hong Kong, Europe possibly, and especially China. For example, in China, 90% of the investor pool are retail.
As for market direction, that's not something I try to predict. Near time, a recession and not Trump/the trade war is what will actually cause stock prices to fall. During a recession companies cut down on buybacks and will likely at least cause a temporary fall in stock prices. But the US economy is quite resilient and this economic cycle may last longer than many expect. A shock from China is the bigger threat and the slowdown is already evident in the retail sales data there. Based on current valuations, I believe the 10 year expected return on the US market will be about 6%, the 10 year expected return for bonds to be about 3%. Gold will have a similar profile to bonds but returns be skewed to the upside. Oil I expect, will under perform inflation.
Submitted December 29, 2018 at 10:47AM by dxu8888 http://bit.ly/2RoMDMz
