Usually the first sign of a downturn is when default rates for various kinds of debt rise (credit card, auto loan, etc.). Here's an article from the NYpost talking about it.
https://nypost.com/2018/08/11/more-americans-are-defaulting-on-their-credit-cards-analyst/
The St. Louis Fed data also backs this article up given that default rates have been rising since their 2015 low:
Submitted August 13, 2018 at 01:40PM by OfficialHavik https://ift.tt/2MkMQOl
