here's my shitty DCF and PE Model (with data) for FB
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2014 thru 2017 data is historical and real
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2018 thru 2019 data is merge of nasdaq & yahoo finance estimates
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2020 thru 2023 data are my estimates given global ad market projections (and my personal bias towards Zuck as a GOAT capital allocator in disguise) ... with margins falling slightly overtime given anticipation of new data costs .. maybe not enough baked into SG&A?
FB current WACC is 7.8% according to gurufocus.com for DCF
FB traded thru most of 2017 with a PE multiple in the low 30's, and bottomed (in PE terms) in late MAR 2018 w/ a record-low multiple around 26 ... for the PE model, is it reasonable to consider 30 a current and fair multiple given: 1. future growth estimates and 2. market's seemingly perceived value of similar growth companies (~ 30x earnings) .... with 24x earnings being a reasonable valuation 5 years out given: 1. rising interest rates, and 2. Google's path to maturity as a public company
should we be adding at $200 despite all-time highs? what other items should we include for DCF modeling ...
disclosure: long; $170 basis
Submitted June 21, 2018 at 08:23PM by gghh01 https://ift.tt/2tuupLy
