In November of 2015, I put together a bit of a timeline which ran over a few different instances where Elon Musk/Tesla made projections which ranged from mildly inaccurate to very inaccurate. Here is an updated edition which includes both the originally cited events and more recent ones.
I'll present the information and let you draw your own conclusion on Elon/Tesla's credibility going forward.
I'll also revise the format so it's easier to go through.
| Date | Claim | Actuality |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 2008 | Bring Model S to market in late 2010 | Pushback |
| Oct. 2008 | Bring Model S to market by 2011 | Deliveries began in late June, 2012. |
| Oct. 2008 | Positive cash flow within 9 months | It is Febuary 2018 and we're still seeing negative quarters on a regular basis. |
| Jan. 2009 | Roadsters will be delivered fully equipped. | Tesla told buyers they needed to pay extra for those options or lose their place in the queue. Here's a quote by buyer #395 from another article which gives us some insight into that event. |
| Aug. 2011 (scroll to "Ownership and Pricing") | $70K USD for 300-mile variant (after incentives) | $82K for 300-mile variant (after incentives) |
| Summer 2011 | Model X Avaiable late 2013 with 10-15K deliveries/yr | Pushback |
| Feb. 2012 | Model X production to begin in 2013 with "ramp up to" significant delivered quantities by early 2014 | Pushback |
| Mar. 2013 | Model X production to start in late 2014 | Pushback |
| Feb. 2014 | Model X to be delivered in high volume by Spring of 2015 | 6 units delivered in Fall of 2015 and "about 2,650" by end of Q1, 2016 |
| Feb. 2014 | Model 3 "to be produced in approximately three years." | Almost accurate, plus 0.75 years or-so. |
| May 2016 | Tesla to produce between 100K-200K Model 3s in the second half of 2017.[1] | Tesla made 1,800 deliveries of the Model 3 in 2017. |
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I have seen some interpret this number as an intentional exaggeration based on the fact that Musk later specified the initiation of deliveries on July 1st as "an impossible date". The two factors are easy to separate, though, if you look further down in the transcript.
Musk says,
"I feel confident about the topline number, but the mix internally, it is difficult to figure that out. Maybe it's something like 100,000 to 150,000 S and X, and then maybe 300,000 to 400,000 of 3, I don't know. It's really hard to say."
Musk was obviously incredibly confident in a figure in the ballpark of a third of a million by the end of 2018, so it's reasonable to extrapolate that at the very least, 10% of that should have been done in 2017-even if factoring for the frequently mentioned "production ramp", which Tesla can never seem to get a hold of. We'll see if they can find the traction necessary to make it a reality.
Tesla has actually been sued over the matter of failure in Model 3 production readiness. They mentioned it themselves in their Q3 2017 report:
On October 10, 2017, a purported stockholder class action was filed in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California against Tesla, two of its current officers and a former officer. The complaint alleges violations of federal securities laws and seeks unspecified compensatory damages and other relief on behalf of a purported class of purchasers of Tesla securities from May 4, 2016 to October 6, 2017. The lawsuit claims that Tesla supposedly made materially false and misleading statements regarding its preparedness to produce Model 3 vehicles. We believe that the claims are without merit and intend to defend against this lawsuit vigorously. We are unable to estimate the possible loss or range of loss, if any, associated with this lawsuit.
I haven't seen any update on the case's progress but would update this if anyone has info.
I'm going to add a component to this which I feel is necessary because oftentimes when I see a post/comment which highlights Tesla's inability to meet goals and/or deadlines, a Tesla fan (or investor) comes forward and questions its significance within the overall market - usually against automotive competitors.
So, I'll compare projections for the Model 3 against the Bolt since those are both in the 200+ mile range EV segment.
I checked various investor materials from both companies' going back into 2012 and coming forward to 2017. In addition, I checked media reports for general events. Here is when each company made projections of availability for the respective segment entry, when revisions occurred, and the actuality:
| Year | Tesla | GM |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | "..our goal is to introduce the Model 3, a lower priced sedan designed for the mass market, in 2017." | Official debut: "The $30,000 EV crossover concept boasts a range of 200 miles" |
| 2016 | Official debut: "Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the car will deliver at least 215 miles of range beginning at just $35,000" | "The Bolt EV will be an all-electric vehicle when it goes into production at our Orion Assembly plant in late 2016... |
| 2016 | (May earnings call transcript, Musk speaking): "So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of [2017]. That's my expectation right now." | (Dec.) First Bolts delivered to customers |
| 2017 | (Jul.) First Model 3s delivered to employees | no entry |
| 2018 | Tesla makes 1,800 Model 3 deliveries in 2017 | Chevrolet makes 23,000+ Bolt deliveries in 2017 |
Note: There were a handful of mentions of the Model 3 in terms of future outlook which dated quite far back. The Summer 2011 letter included a mention of the then-called "Gen III", but I didn't include them as they were relatively theoretical in manner and not projections in any regard. They actively disclosed the project was on a TBD-basis so I granted them the benefit of said disclosure.
Edit for disclosure: I have no position or plans to initiate a position in TSLA.
Submitted March 02, 2018 at 03:06PM by Tnargkiller http://ift.tt/2FjzAGg
