Just kidding about the AMA, but I did just go 75% to cash / cash equivalents. I'm right at 34% 1 year returns, and noticed that even my mid-year pick losers are winning (SBUX). I've always been a trader that puts a lot of value on P/E ratios and covered calls, so it has been really tough for me to stay in this market.
In case anyone is curious, the stocks / REITs I stayed in are AAPL, BA, BRKB, BRT, CMCT, and JPM.
I know that people have been calling for a bear market since '12, and that with the economy as white-hot as it is right now it is probably better positioned to grow into a SP500 P/E of 25.7 (against a historical mean of 15.68, mind you) in '18 than it was going into '17, but I've officially got cold feet. I'd rather pay down some personal debt than have the beta that I believe is inherent right now...
Personally I think that the healthiest thing would be if 2018 is a flat year, despite positive macro-economic reports. I kind of doubt that the market will get rational, so my belief right now is that there will continue to be a big run up early next year, with an even sharper pullback coming Q3 (my guess is August). I don't have the balls to try to play with calling a top with that much precision, so I moved to cash preemptively.
Anyways, thought it might be interesting to have a thread about what percentage you guys are in cash right now? Where's everyone at?
Submitted December 15, 2017 at 11:53AM by blackwoodify http://ift.tt/2CznwMP
