Regardless of which direction the trade deficit runs in, America exports a significant amount of goods to both Canada and Mexico. The American auto industry, which has their supply chains set up in North America will almost definitely collapse. Agricultural will be hit significantly hard.
Even if we buy the argument that removing the NAFTA will result in greater manufacturing jobs in the US, or pave the way for better bilateral agreements, the short term structural unemployment from the upheaval will be enough to trigger a recession.
While one might say that this is all brinkmanship from Trump to drive a better negotiation, Trump is truly unpredictable and all it takes is an EO. I wouldn't be too bullish about the near future. The risk is too damn high.
Submitted October 17, 2017 at 07:17PM by WagwanKenobi http://ift.tt/2ik0oMN
