Costco released its August sales results, the first 52 weeks of its 53-week fiscal year ended on August 27 2017. The net sales figure was 123.5 billion dollars.
Membership revenue for the first 3 quarters, 630 million + 636 million + 644 million = 1.91 billion.
So far we are looking at a $125.41 billion revenue based on the numbers that were published.
Now onto the unknown. We need to estimate the membership revenue for June July and August.
Total membership revenue for Q4 2016 was $832 million, Q4 2015 was $785 million. That is about a 6% growth quarter over quarter. The growth for the previous three-quarters were 6.2% 5.5% and 4.2%.
Assuming the growth for Q4 membership revenue at 4.5% 5.25% and 6%. we are looking at a revenue of 869.44 mil (low), 875.68 mil (mid) and 881.92 mil (high)
Since 2017 fiscal year for costco is 53 weeks. We are missing the net sales for the first week of September. Assuming an 8-10% growth. We are looking at a net sales figure of $2.38 billion(low), $2.41 billion(mid) and 2.43 billion (high)
Now we have a full year estimate of costco's revenue between $128.66 billion and $128.72 billion.
But wait! Since we still have the first week of september, people would be renewing their membership during that week, it could push the revenue up even higher. We could be looking a revenue between $128.7 billion to $128.75 billion.
The estimates on Wallstreet are avg 128.09, low 125.75, and high: 129.13. We are definitely beating that average, and if we get a little lucky with the net sales in the first week of September and membership revenue. We may even beat the highest estimate.
My play. I bought 35 oct 20 170 calls for 35 cents on Monday, now up about 80%. Planning on selling 20 when i reach 100% gains, another 10 before earnings and hold 5 after earnings depending on the stock price.
Risk: All these are already priced in and I get wrecked.
Submitted September 01, 2017 at 09:19AM by ncdecay http://ift.tt/2epoEHV
