I’m turning to /r/investing for some serious help, because I just don’t know what to do anymore.
As I’ve said elsewhere, the markets rose not just because of DJT, but because of the alleviation of gridlock at the Federal level. I was certain we’d see a tsunami of pro-growth legislation coming out of Congress: Tax cuts, infrastructure spending, healthcare reform. All certainties that would increase growth, and thus inflation. I thought (and still do) that the 10 year could EASILY reach 3%, maybe even 4 if the entrepreneurial zeitgeist could truly take hold in this beloved country of ours. 30 year seemed destined for 6%.
I didn’t necessarily want to play the market beyond broad sectors (i.e. financials), determined the next surest bet was to short Treasuries: given how efficient the sovereign bond market is, the drop in prices post-DJT would appear to indicate that the market itself was also expecting higher growth. It seemed like a no-brainer, and as I always say, no one is smarter than the bond market. On top of this, given the recently Hawkish Fed with all those hikes planned this year, I originally thought they’d hike in February, giving us 4 for the entire year.
At first the trade went great: I shorted the 10 year between 2.40 and 2.45, and within a few weeks, had already climbed to 2.6%, despite no hike in February. Didn’t turn out to be a big deal since Janet decided to fool EVERYBODY with the fake-out and went for March instead. Whatever. No big deal. Yet the day of the raise, the yield curve actually shifted downward because suddenly Janet decides to become a Dove again. Such bullshit. I bit the bullet because even if monpol was shitting the bed, I knew my wager on fispol (on account of alleviation of gridlock as mentioned above, trying to get the most bang for my buck on that PoliSci degree!) would pull through. But then something I just couldn’t believe happened: Healthcare reform BOMBED. DJT hijacked Paul Ryan’s meticulously planned piece of legislation, and arguably the greatest policy mind to ever be elected into Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. Yields dropped lower on all this, so I did the only reasonable trade: I doubled down.
Fast forward to today, with the 10 year now approaching 2.15. I’ve lost so much already (God knows I’ll eat those 20% losses all day, e’ryday), that I think I should just hold and be patient and wait for my thesis to play out. At the same time, given how much I concentrated into the trade, I’m losing confidence in my abilities altogether to navigate this market. I’m almost scared for what happens next with these prices. I’m torn between doubling down and just holding, because I KNOW with the GOP controlling all branches of govt for at least 4 years (we’ll win 2018), these pro-growth policies WILL eventually pass.
Any help on what course of action I should pursue would be greatly welcomed (and needed!).
Also, if someone could post the suicide hotline number, I’d really appreciate it. Think I need someone to talk to that isn’t involved in the markets.
Submitted April 18, 2017 at 03:19PM by TheRealAntacular http://ift.tt/2pyVA5o
