US earnings growth sucks. No catalysts in play to really push the economy to the next level.
Not to make it political, but the trump-trade seems to be over, in the sense that no one is making any money in the markets over trump. (in the last month, especially).
If the US can't get more than 1-2% nominal real YoY GDP growth, with a lot of friction to get that 1-2% growth, where do you go?
Invest in emerging markets that aren't commodity driven like Poland or New Zealand? Invest in dividend heavy min-vol US stocks? Invest in the big sectors that do well (e.g. healthcare, infotech/semi, with a healthy dose of consumer staples to minimize volatility?)
My take; A lot of individual equities many people have been riding a high on, are stalling, and just getting chipped away at. We seem to be going nowhere as oil finds itself. We're not in a recession or anything, but that stretch of like 87 days with no 1% moves to the downside are over. I think trumps is disrupting some businesses and sectors more than others, by introducing a bit of uncertainty. And the infrastructure plan to spend 1 trillion is less likely than ever to get come to fruition. The trump budget proposal is definitely alarming a lot of businesses that have ancillary revenues from gov entities that receive budgets being slashed by trump. GOP wants to take on taxes next (and fail), GOP is divided on this, with the Paul Ryan plan being opposed by many in business (like Wal-Mart), as it does things like eliminate export tariffs while imposing higher import tariffs (Wal-Mart imports a lot.....)
So, are we setting ourselves up for a sideways S&P? Who has any thoughts on how to trade this dogshit market?
Submitted April 05, 2017 at 08:08AM by factory81 http://ift.tt/2p0y8gg
