Compare:
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And, perhaps more relevant in the immediate future:
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(Google has killed the timeline feature, so click to the right and check the dates manually, it's rather hard to find)
I do not mean to harp on the BBC here, anymore than I'd like to harp on other news services. These protests are huge, constant, and certainly sound serious. But reading any news source outside of Greece you would think nobody in Greece even cares, when of course if you read the articles, it's beyond obvious that the next elections will be a landslide victory for anyone who promises to get out of Europe.
But as someone outside of Greece, I find this conclusion that I'm forced to take baffling. The statement "Greece will elect anyone, far-right racists, communists, whoever, if they merely have never been in power and promise to give the finger to Europe" seems almost absurd given our news.
The situation in France is similar, even if yes, not quite as serious as the Greek one. Where in Greece there are biweekly large protests against government policy, in France it's every 2-3 months. While I do not know how this will affect the elections per se, I would like to point out that nobody else knows either. Macron and Le Pen's huge difference currently is the racism of Le Pen, which is a difference.
However, another huge difference that seems to be missed everywhere is the difference in economic policy between Macron (intensify current government's economic policy), and Le Pen (radical change : leave EU, leave the Euro, more social policies, ...). It seems to me that these protests against the government were very much protests against Macron when he was in power as minister. Problem is that in France, contra EU protests fill cities, drawing tens of thousands of people in Paris, thousands in other cities. Pro-EU protests are lucky to get 10% that attendance (except in Germany).
Maybe it's just me, but can someone explain to me why the election in France is such a done deal ? Because it seems to me very unnatural, from an economic viewpoint, for Hamon and Melenchon voters to switch to Macron in the next round. Austerity in France is as EU-imposed (according to the currently in-power politicians, and likely true) as it is in Greece. The consideration that there were large scale protests against Macron's policies every 2-3 months for years is ignored, while attendance on "marches" in favor of pro-Europe policies were (in France) pathetic to the point that it was hard to notice that this was even happening (but I guarantee you, nobody missed the anti-austerity protests in Paris last year. Nobody)
Given the high turnout that is expected, I would say that economically motivated voters might result in this outcome : Macron (23.86% Macron + 19.94% Fillon), Le Pen (21.43% Le Pen + 19.62% Melenchon + 6.35% Hamon), which is 43.8% for Macron, and 47.4% for Le Pen. The big question is, do the French hate Le Pen enough to forget that there were large-scale protests against Macron's policies barely a year ago ?
This conclusion, that Le Pen doesn't stand a chance is a foregone conclusion in all media, in France and outside, but this, to me, seems extremely far fetched. It is obvious to me that today in France, there are far more people that would like to lynch Macron than there are that would lynch Le Pen. It's just that Le Pen haters are vastly overrepresented in the media. Does this remind anyone else of a situation from last year ?
Submitted April 25, 2017 at 09:20AM by wapswaps http://ift.tt/2q2wVJj
