The first few companies to get fully autonomous cars on the market will probably be on fire for a year or two, but by 2025 or so there will probably be at least 5-10 independent companies with the technology to produce autonomous cars all competing with each other. At that point, the car sharing/taxi businesses like Uber will probably capture all of the new profits, and car manufacturers can only sell new cars to replace depreciation of taxi cars and perhaps some luxury brands. Since taxi riders won't care as much about new cars, the frequency of new car purchases will decrease and along with it, the profit of car manufacturers.
This makes me have a fairly negative view of car companies in the next decade/decades. Am I being too negative? This makes me think that the low valuations of F and GM are not actually low, as the current scramble is to avoid becoming totally obsolete.
Submitted February 27, 2017 at 12:03AM by ccc45p http://ift.tt/2l1WxEy
