I’m sort of bullish (mostly non bearish) on stocks. Mostly because sentiment is just coming out of a trough. I plan on selling puts on margin wherever I see hysteria for my general “equities exposure.”
But I think machine learning is going to lead to unforeseeable disruption that will be nearly impossible to pick winners from in public markets. The “obvious” winners already getting priced in on AI fantasies etc. but tech is deflationary and cannibalizes its profit margins away. Costs will go down which will boost earnings in the short to medium term. but also cause prices to drop and mass deflation as services and goods can be produced with very little labor.
Business (if not public) will flourish, it is the inputs that will be constrained. Business and commerce being cheap, with winners hard to pick will make for a commodity provider/sellers market
Submitted May 16, 2023 at 04:13AM by BenjaminHamnett https://ift.tt/1pN6nsb
