I recently got out of TAN at a 50% loss, after reading a convincing argument against solar ETFs that basically boils down to diversification being a bad bet in this industry as the survival rate of individual companies is much lower than in others. I.e. the losers keep dragging the ETF down and there are more losers than winners. Kind of the opposite of the safety diversification via ETF usually offers.
Solar power is going to be huge, but most of today's solar companies will go belly up before then and the amount of profit the survivors can make from manufacturing installing solar panels are dubious.
So instead of trying to pick a winner there, I'm inclined to invest in manufacturers of solar panel and system components that will profit from a booming solar market no matter which solar company will go boom or bust (same rationale as going with TMO instead of picking individual biotech companies, see also the selling shovels in a gold rush analogy.)
I found this site listing component manufacturers, but there's no way I can go through these thousands of listings and evaluate each company to find the best investment opportunity. Since someone else is bound to have already done this research, or might know of a few good examples of such companies, I thought I'd ask for advice here.
What preferably non-Chinese, profitable and established manufacturer of solar panel- or related components, or supplier of the necessary base materials would you invest in? Ideally this would be the main part of their business, so that the rise of solar will benefit them much more than a huge conglomerate's solar division growing while their fossil fuel division shrinks and their stock does nothing.
Submitted December 31, 2021 at 07:56AM by don_cornichon https://ift.tt/3HquVyB
