Market is not paying attention to recurring revenue potential of Covid-19 vaccines. Given the scare of pandemic, for next few years, everyone will likely be forced to take annual jab (or at the very least travellers should need vaccination proof for quite sometime)
When it comes to next jab, people are most likely to go for Novavax because:
- Much lower side effects as compared to Moderna/Pfizer
- Cheaper (<= $16 per dose)
- Virus variants are becoming bigger problem. Protein subunit vaccines are better placed for covering variants than MRNA
- They plan to make a Combo vaccine with their Nanoflu - so instead of annual flu vaccine, people can simply go for combo
- And obviously highest efficacy (95.6% original, 86% UK, 60% SA strain)
It seems incredible that NVAX market cap is just $17B when Moderna is valued at $65B. To reach $65B, NVAX shares will need to shoot to $1070
It can be argued lower price than Moderna means lower revenue. But lower price coupled with no deep freeze requirement will translate to much higher market share. On top of that, they already have a very successful flu vaccine (Nanoflu) which completed phase 3 trial March 2020.
Submitted February 05, 2021 at 02:10AM by geschtonkenflappd https://ift.tt/2N0JiTa
