DMYD & Genius Sports: Index for Sports Betting with Strong Tail Winds
SPAC's nowadays run up to $15, $20, $25 on merger announcement. Shitty, obscure SPACs with poor fundamentals and obscure business models are all the rage the past few weeks.
Investor presentation linked before the DD:https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e33152a051d2e7588f7571c/t/5f98173a9643aa67a4ced693/1603802943090/GSG+PIPE+Presentation+%2827-Oct-2020%29.PDFAs everyone has noticed, SPACs have put investors on notice in 2020. With massive liquidity in the markets today, tons of money has been flowing into speculative SPAC investments this year.
Given that retail investors have no chance to profit from traditional IPOs that hit the market after a 100% run up (ABNB, DASH, AI, U, etc.) SPACs have presented an excellent opportunity to evaluate and invest in new companies before they actually hit the market. Personally, I have made fantastic returns through a number of SPACs.
That being said, not all SPACs are created equal. Some legitimate mature companies and high growth disrupters have emerged through SPACs: UTZ, DraftKings, ChargePoint, OpenDoor, Virgin Galactic, Eos Energy, and Butterfly are just a few examples.
However, many SPACs are performance chasing the EV hype by pursuing multi billion dollar acquisitions of EV start ups with 0 revenue for the forseeable future. I say good luck.
However, how often do you find a diamond in the rough? A SPAC with a definitive agreement, near NAV and outstanding fundamentals? Oh, and did i mention that they only have one competitor?
One SPAC with massive upside potential at a conservative valuation is DMYD-Genius Sports.
First, who is DMYD? dMY Technology Group https://www.dmytechnology.com/team is led by CEO Niccolo de Masi, the former CEO of Glu Mobile.
De Masi has consummated 25+ mergers and raised more than $1B in funding for various ventures. He seems to have a knack for the mobile/gaming sector, as his first SPAC: DMYT is taking Rush Street, an igaming company, public. De Masi is a veteran of this sector, which makes Genius Sports Group an interesting target.
Meet Genius Sports. ($DMYD)
(TL;DR at bottom)
Who is Genius Sports?
Genius Sports Group is one of two large sports data providers (the other being SportRadar) that collects and sells live data to sports books. This is incredibly important, as live betting needs constantly adjusted lines to reflect real time game updates. Genius Sports currently has contracts with the NCAA, PGA, NASCAR, FIBA, EPL, Bundesliga, and NBA, among other leagues, to be their sole or primary data provider.
These partnerships have staying power, as these leagues are unlikely to change partners once they are locked in for multiyear contracts. Additionally, acquiring rights to official league data is expensive, thus making a high barrier of entry for new competitors. They have 220 customers including DraftKings, FanDuel, William Hill, MGM, PointsBet, and Caesars. Important to note: Genius takes 5% of revenues of events they cover from ALL sports books. https://geniussports.com/home/partners/
Genius is above other SPACs due to its mature market position and strong financials.
The company has been growing at a 30% CAGR over the last several years, with revenue growing 250% from 2016 to 2020 ($42M to $145M). 60% of revenue is recurring due to multi year contracts, and the top 10 customers only account for 30% of revenue, thus lowering flight risk of any particular customer.
Genius is already EBITDA positive with 10% margins this year, and anticipates $68M in adjusted EBITDA (adjusted to ignore stock based compensation, a non-cash expense) with 29% margins in two years.
Why Genius Sports?
Genius has a clear economic moat built around:
Proprietary technology to track and record in-game statistics on behalf of major sports leagues, in exchange for data rights
7,000+ statisticians and agents on the ground, managing 240K+ events per year
Highly customizable software that manages every aspect of a sportsbook’s data and trading offering, including advertising and streaming services
Long-term contracts with sports leagues and customers
Significant opportunity for inorganic growth via M&A
Highly fragmented market for technology, content and media within sports ripe for consolidation to boost growth outside of plan.
Genius Sports
Genius is above other SPACs due to its mature market position and strong financials. The company has been growing at a 30% CAGR over the last several years, with revenue growing 250% from 2016 to 2020 ($42M to $145M). 60% of revenue is recurring due to multi year contracts, and the top 10 customers only account for 30% of revenue, thus lowering flight risk of any particular customer.
Genius is already EBITDA positive with 10% margins this year, and anticipates $68M in adjusted EBITDA (adjusted to ignore stock based compensation, a non-cash expense) with 29% margins in two years. In a year where sports were disrupted by Covid, Genius still grew revenue from $116M to $145M. They also successfully resigned their contract with the NBA, ensuring a multi-year partnership with the premiere US basketball league.
Outside of the betting market, Genius’s ability to aggregate data has led to an interesting agreement with the NCAA. Until 2018, live data with college sports was incredibly inefficient. Genius signed a contract with the NCAA to create a new software: NCAA Live statistics https://geniussports.com/sports/sportsmanagement/ncaa-case-study/.
This is a uniform software for all divisions of college sports. As a former college athlete myself, I reached out to some of the athletic support staff from my University. They raved about how Genius has improved efficiency and accuracy for college athletics. NCAA Live statistics has overhauled the entire industry.
And as New York is in the works of legalizing sports betting, this will explode soon.
Genius Sports also has an impressive amount of customers and partnerships, and even more exclusive ones coming each week. Which ones below do you recognize?; with over 700 partners you're bound to know a few of them.
Basketball: NBA, NCAA, March Madness
Soccer: FIFA, Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga
Golf: PGA, LPGA, European Tour
Racing: NASCAR
Online Sportsbooks: DraftKings & Fanduel
Traditional Sportsbooks: MGM, Caesars, SkyBet, William Hill
Likely Future Partner: Rush Street Gaming (DMYT)
- Currently up 63% YTD, also went public with the same deal team (DMY)
they only lost 1 customer in last 3 years, and shortly after that customer RETURNED to Genius Sports. talk about real life FOMO, 'eh?
Financials & Trading Dynamics
Financials
- Already makes $140M+ in revenue AND is profitable, with $14M in 2020 EBITDA
- Growing at 30% CAGR, with $230M revenue and $68M EBITDA by 2022
- $500M+ EBITDA potential in the horizon
- Customer contracts have guaranteed minimums with upside on usage. The majority of 2020 revenue is locked in for 3-4 years on average
- Only ever lost one customer in the past three years
Trading dynamics
- Deal was overlooked because it was announced just before the election (10/27/20), one of the worst trading weeks for the entire market
- Reddit following has been limited and Stocktwits nonexistent
- If Genius Sports were to trade at similar 2022E revenue multiple of 19x as Draftkings, it would imply a stock price of $24-25
Additionally, with Pfizer’s vaccine approval, there is little to no risk of massive sports cancellations in the future. Genius still grew revenue during Covid’s massive disruption. I imagine that the revenue numbers for 2021 will be fantastic.
Now let’s focus on the stock movement and valuation.
Genius is valued as $1.4B, or 7.4x 2021 revenues. For a company with high CAGR and an industry with massive tailwinds, this seems like a fair, or cheap valuation. Note that Genius is trading at a steep discount to lower margin businesses such as sportsbooks Golden Nugget, DraftKings, and Penn.
While investors have been chasing the next hot EV IPO, Genius has slowly climbed from $10 to $13. Last summer, a rumored FEAC-SportRadar merger led to FEAC pumping to $15+. SportRadar was worth $2.8B in 2018, presenting 60% upside from Genius’ current price to reach its competitor’s 2018 valuation!
DMYD and Genius announced their merger in late October during a market downturn, thus letting it go overlooked. I think this is a sleeper SPAC that will have a massive influx of news in Q1, as its merger aligns with the climax of college basketball and the beginning of March Madness. A single Benzinga article pumped the stock by almost 20% last week.
Consistent growth
Last week, Genius Sports scored an exclusive partnership with the German Tennis Federation:
- This is just one of the many partnerships Genius bring in. For example, a few days prior to this they scored a deal for Beach Soccer data. Over 700 partnerships and counting.
Do you know who captures and provides the biggest sports betting event of the year - NCAA March Madness - data to sports betting sites?
- It's Genius Sports and they'll be closing their merger with $DMYD right before that huge event. ESP March Madness for NCAA Basketball; One of the biggest gambling events of the year. The event occurs in Q1, which perfectly ties in with the merger with DMY Technology Group, Inc. II, $DMYD. Merger Q1 2021.
I also think the NCAA presents the biggest upside catalyst for Genius: March Madness. March Madness was cancelled due to the pandemic last year, but betters placed $4.8B in bets on the tournament in 2019. Who has a monopoly on NCAA data? Genius.
Who gets a 5% revenue share from ALL sports books for NCAA events? Genius. With the number of states with legalized betting doubling from 2018 to 2020, we could see upwards of $10B spent on March Madness this year. Along with March Madness, secular tailwinds for sports betting suggest high upside for Genius moving forward. 46 out of 50 states have either passed or presented legislation to legalize sports betting.
As states such as NY, CA, TX, and FL legalize betting, revenues streams will swell. Data will become increasingly important in this industry as live updates are constantly moving betting lines for books. With multi-year contracts with half of the US’s professional leagues, Genius serves as an index for the entire industry.
On top of that; just a few weeks ago Canada legalized sports betting;https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/trudeau-government-moves-to-legalize-single-event-sports-betting
Positions:
Personally, I am long $166k in DMYD stock, and have no intention of selling anytime soon. Always do your own DD, but I hope this post helps.
PT $18-20 EOM.
TLDR: Long DMYD as its a sleeping giant near NAV. There are currently no Arbs holding this down, so its primed to explode. Small float aswell. Only one competitor, Sportsradar. And SR is not even publically traded on any market.
Merger Q1 2021.
Market cap around $2B currently
"it's as undervalued as Tesla, both should go up at least 50% from here" - Warren Buffett.
Oh yeah, i couldn't include images in my post so excuse horrible layout.
Submitted December 12, 2020 at 06:36PM by zech_meme https://ift.tt/2JYnwyu
