For the 11 Dec 2019 Fed meeting, the market is now pricing in a ~16% chance (at time of writing) for THREE rate cuts (down to 150-175). This was not the case just yesterday. In comparison, the chance of us having the same rate that we have now is ~12%.
This is such a huge difference. Even more insane? An around equal chance for FOUR rate cuts by the January Fed meeting. I can't even right now. By the way, the 3m/10y spread is inverted by almost 20 basis points. Literally can't even.
This is insane, right? I think the market is way too on edge and that the Fed is more right here with their most recent words on the matter of rates. But saying the bond market is wrong "this time around" have always ended up being famous last words.
Submitted May 30, 2019 at 11:22PM by lulzcakes http://bit.ly/30Z1K10
