Hi, first some context about my situation. I'm in my mid 20s and I have started investing recently (2018). I traded stocks earlier this year and I have made some money( my portfolio is <10k). Then towards late September I cashed out as I had a bad gut feeling about excessive valuations (that was mostly luck tbh). Now after seeing the performance of the stock market in October and November, and the calls for a recession in 2020 I remain pretty bearish. I am mostly in cash and considering save havens like gold (my risk tolerance is low).
However doing some research, I saw that inverse bond ETFs and ETNs have had very good returns YTD (TBF: 9,23%; DTYS; 28,38%; TAPR:33,55%; DLBS: 35.85%; DFVS: 16,78% and several others). Now I am well aware that volatility kills returns in inverse ETFs if held for a long time but these numbers are hard to ignore. Anyhow I have a few questions for more seasoned investors who know these products better:
1)Have these ETFs performed better than inverse stock ETFs like PSQ simply because the sell off in the bond market has been longer and more consistent in 2018?
2) This is more subjective but do you think that the expectations of inflation and a hawkish Fed are enough to offset the decay from holding these ETFs long term? (By the way, I am only interested in inverse 1x)
3) As a follow up to the previous question should I look into ETFs with longer maturities and if so how long 10,20 30 years?
4) Considering all these factors as well as taxes, is it simply a better idea to hold these ETFs short term only?
Thank you.
Submitted November 25, 2018 at 12:30PM by drumbf https://ift.tt/2ReiuMO
