TSMC has a monopoly on 7 nanometer from Apple (75% of 7nm orders), AMD (cpu, gpu?), NVDA (post-volta/turing), and qualcomm (snapdragon). With growing demand from other sources besides mobile and the expectation that NAND/DRAM ASPs will cool, I think they will set their sights on increasing profit margins. Their margins have in the past been contracting due to capex for 5-nanometer and crypto headwinds.
It has also been reported that TSMC has the highest yield/quality 7 nanometer node as compared to the rivals, Intel and Samsung. Intel's 10 nanometer (equivalent to ITRS 7 nanometer) is rumored to be delayed another year. Apple will continue to use TSMC as Intel doesn't have mobile nodes (low power and leakage), and Samsung already supplies a $ of BOM including OLED and memory to Apple.
In the AI space, TSMC is fabricating Graphcore's giant AI accelerator, which replaces DRAM with on-chip SRAM. IN my mind, this is the strongest competitor of NVDA (apart from big tech building their own training chips). This is because AI perf depends strongly on the memory due to IO-bound nature of DL training.
Conclusion: TSMC has a growing monopoly over mobile (virtually all non-Samsung phones), AI (NVDA, Google/FB/AAPL, and Graphcore). And now TSMC will enter the server market through AMD.
In my semi pick, I am super bullish on TSMC and slightly bullish on AMD + NVDA, not too bullish/staying away from memory (particular NAND and HDD). Regarding Intel, two uncertainties: 1) quality and yield of their 10-nm, and 2) release date of their 10-nm datacenter line. If TSMC increases die price to the customers, it puts Intel at an advantage. However, they will still lose server share... However, it is a good value semi company.
https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/7_nm_lithography_process
Further technical musings: Notice anything strange by GF's cancellation in 7nm? They tried EUV (new technology with higher variation in silicon properties and systematic yield problems from wafer to wafer). Intel and Samsung are also using EUV, and I bet these delays are due to EUV. TSMC on the other hand is opting for more conventional 193 nm litho with proven consistent yields. However, in their 7nm++ LPP, they are pushing for EUV (https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333244)
Submitted August 28, 2018 at 04:49PM by seekingtheta_shoes https://ift.tt/2Lxh8c5
