This is a preliminary model for ExxonMobil, using extremely conservative numbers (I have them declining by 5-7\% every single year after 2029). Result is a 30%+ ROI potential, and likely more than that considering the cautiousness of the model. I don't have a position as of now, but will almost certainly go long before July 27 when they announce earnings.
Your input is welcome. Having said that, realize that the model linked below is bare bones and not much rationale is provided for the growth rates used (although there is some reasoning included in the cell comments) -- I know this already, and it is intentional. Furthermore, I understand that some parts of it may be hard to understand for some. As such, feel free to ask questions in the comments, and I will do my best to explain what's going on. With that in mind, it's all yours to follow, not follow, edit, add to, etc.
Bare bones model: https://www.scribd.com/document/383953265/XOM-1?secret_password=gVdarLEeHkHCWLjK9XuE
Also, when you try and view it on Scribd, it shows as a PDF, which makes it pretty impossible to read. If you click download, it gives you the option to download it as an excel document, which then lets you see things as they should be. Note that the excel document has multiple pages (i.e., sheets) with various interesting information that I found and organized.
Submitted July 16, 2018 at 11:25AM by mostlycoffeine https://ift.tt/2NSGTWR
