I've been reading about the "peak demand" for oil/gas, due to predictions of dropping demand of oil/gas for for cars, trucks and power plants. Although I've been wondering about what would be the demand for other products that require oil/gas, such as:
- Aviation (kerosene still dominates, and you can't build electric aircraft that can compete head-on against ones powered by turbine engines: https://www.quora.com/Is-it-possible-to-make-electric-aircraft-capable-of-supersonic-speeds )
The kind of fuel you'd use in an F-16 has an energy density of about 42.8 megajoules per kilogram. So, the 7,162 pounds of fuel stored in an F-16s fuel tanks contain 139 gigajoules of energy. That's a large amount of energy for a comparatively small weight. (The F-16 itself weighs 19,700 pounds...)
Compare this to a lithium polymer battery, the kind you would see in a modern electric aircraft like the MC30E. The battery is rated at 4.7 kilowatt-hours (16.9 megajoules) and weighs about 34 kg (this is an approximation derived from similar LiPo batteries), giving it an energy density of 0.5 MJ/kg, or about 1% of that of kerosene.
In order to produce the same amount of energy as the F-16's fuel, you'd need about 615,300 pounds of batteries, which would increase the F-16's weight by about 30 times, which means it would require even MORE energy to get the same acceleration, and so on...
- Some types of rocket fuel. SpaceX's Merlin engines uses RP-1 propellants, which is highly refined kerosene.
Hydrazine, another form of rocket fuel, is made using ammonia, which itself is typically made from natural gas, methane, LPG (propane and butane), or naphtha (also comes from oil/gas).
If there's another space race to Moon and Mars, it's going to take a tremendous amount of energy to throw lots of stuff into space, and even more when repeat launches are needed to replace failed ones (e.g. Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly, or payload failed to eject from the rocket). It's going to take lots of cargo to setup a base on Moon or Mars.
-
Petrochemicals. I highly doubt the "plastic-free" movements are going to make much of a dent in plastic production and usage. There's a reason why many phone/computer cases, USB flash drives' cases, and cars' dashboards are made of plastic. There's also epoxy and some synthetic fabric such as nylon.
-
Some composite materials. Carbon fiber can be made from pitch (typically comes from oil or coal), polyacrylonitrile (which requires acrylonitrile, which itself is made from propene) or rayon (uses cellulose, but requires lots of energy and chemicals to process).
-
Fertilizers, also made from ammonia.
-
Long distance shipping. Battery powered ships might become more common for short distance hauls, but sailing across the Atlantic Ocean takes a lot of energy, and I'd expect global trade to continue to grow in the long term.
-
IF Africa's economic growth rapidly takes off, there will be a major demand for energy, similar to how much coal/oil China was using since late 1990's. But that's an IF, since Africa is overall a frontier market for a reason.
TL;DR: I believe the oil/gas industry might face slowing demands with some stagnation in the future, but it's unlikely to significantly shrink in size, compared to something like thermal coal industry in the developed markets.
Unless if there's something I'm entirely overlooking...
Submitted April 23, 2018 at 11:41PM by COMPUTER1313 https://ift.tt/2HpD9bN
