Hello, I'm pretty ignorant on this subject and would like some guidance. I was interested in what the US unemployment rate chart looked like the past few decades and you'll notice there is a pattern of extremely low unemployment followed by a very large spike in unemployment generally over the course of 2 years.
Here's what I'm using as a reference Which is the US unemployment rate from ~1942 - 2018. It also shows the trend line which has an upward trend over the past ~80 years.
As you can see we have been at an almost all time low for the past 6 months (4%) which does not happen very often. It looks like we're at the bottom of that last curve, which seems to mean unemployment may start to go back up. The lowest points of unemployment seem to be in 10 year cycles:
- 1950 - 1955
- 1955 - 1960
- 1960 - 1973
- 1973 - 1980
- 1980 - 1990
- 1990 - 2000
- 2000 - 2007
- 2007 - 2018
Most of the lowest unemployment times only lasted ~2 years until it started to rise again. We seem to be at the mid point of that 2 year "cycle" and I'm wondering if I'm just seeing meaningless patterns or if we're ramping up for another rise in unemployment that might go into another 10 year cycle.
I just find it interesting that for the past 9 lowest unemployment years, they only ever stayed that low for ~2 years until markets/economy changed causing spikes in unemployment.
It will be interesting to see if within the next 1-2 years the markets turn very bearish causing a spike in unemployment as we have seen over the past 80 years.
Since it's been 10 years since the last spike, it will be abnormal if it doesn't follow this pattern. If it doesn't follow the pattern, I wonder how long we will stay below 4% unemployment.
Submitted April 17, 2018 at 11:45PM by Robo13 https://ift.tt/2vjBUJm
