14 month ago I started tracking a anti-/r/investing portfolio with 45k using largely contrarian ideas to the majority opinion in this subreddit here and here and here, here and here to show people that active management by investment professionals can generate out-performance.
The general strategy being
Short US/DM equity
Long US treasuries
Long hard assets: gold miners and farm land (exited post trump)
Long EM
Additionally
Short/Avoid Indexes
Long specific stocks
Long active management (timing and position sizing)
I have switched methodology to reporting at month end.
Performance has been achieved maintaining a 30-50% position in U.S. Treasuries and Cash. Current positioning is 130%/30% long/short and 15% cash
Performance: May: -2.2%, Jun: 12.4%, Jul:8.1%, Aug: -7.6%, Sep: 2.6%, Oct: -2.3%, Nov: 1.9%, Dec: 4.1%, Jan: 3.1%, Feb: 1.1%, Mar:3.2%, Apr: 6.2%, May: 7.2%, Jun: 0.2%, July, 1.4%
Since Start: 46.4% as of August 4
Benchmark (SPY+dividend) May: 1.4%, Jun: 0.6%, Jul:4.2%, Aug: -0.4%, Sep: -0.5%, Oct: -2.7%, Nov: 2.6%, Dec: 1.4%, Jan: 2.4%, Feb: 3.9%, Mar:-0.3%, Apr: 1.4%, May: 1.4%, Jun: 0.1%, July, 2.6%
Since Start: 18.2% as of August 4
A lot has happened since I made an update, Unfortunately I was incredibly busy with work and was in the process of registering as an RIA to manage a few separate accounts. This was in addition to having a kid on the way.
Macroeconomic outlook: Nothing has changed significantly, I don't be there will be sustained rate hike in the U.S. The biggest risks today still centers around the banking systems of Europe, Japan and China. I had taken off my gold position post the trump election as I believe expectation for rates was going to be baked in (even if it is wrong)
Regardless, I realized my strength was in picking stocks and not timing macro, given my strong performance in fundamental stock picking versus marketing timing in macro using etfs. As a result, sometime early this year, I began to focus almost entirely on exiting macro timing trades and entered into a few new positions.
JD: Continue to be a strong performer, up 120% since investment, Variant perception based on value visa vs Alibaba. I believe it is still undervalued relative to GMV of around 120bn run-rate. Main underlying strength is the shift towards mobile through its exclusive partnership with Tencent. In the long run, I believe the asset heavy infrastructure model provides a stronger moat in terms of better customer service and more fake goods protection.
Nintendo: Write-up http://ift.tt/2kS3KXB. Switch sales continue to be strong, Pokemon go looks to be having a strong come-back (not a huge rev drive, but upside for other mobile initiatives). Still undervalued as a second Disney.
BRK.B/Amazon: Going with a barbell model that I describe in detail here. http://ift.tt/2urGEqL
New Position in Netease: Sector primer here, don't have time to show full report, will post later. http://ift.tt/2ubtYZS
New Position on Tesla: Felt like gambling given the extremely high short-positioning. It is grossly overvalued, but I think Einhorn is going to have more capital flight and the squeeze will be on for the next few months.
http://ift.tt/2urNDQB Towards July of this year, I have deployed an additional 120k+ to the test portfolio on the backs of the strong performance (The unrealized line does not show total returns because of realized positions).
Update will be relatively sporadic (can't promise monthly) going forward.
Submitted August 04, 2017 at 01:01PM by vegaseller http://ift.tt/2ubyc3z
