My biggest analysis failure (not necessarily the worst loss) was $CALM.
When I bought in, I knew their profit and revenue had increased every quarter. They had a decent amount of cash, and seemed prepared for the switch to the cage-free eggs (Walmart announced they were switching to those in a few years).
What I forgot to check was the price of eggs. And I bought in at the peak of the egg price.
CALM's stock price plunged, dividend was suspended, earnings forecasts were revised downward repeatedly, and the stock price plunged further. -23.47% loss at the end.
I could have waited for the egg price to recover, but I decided to invest in other stocks and use the opportunity for tax loss harvesting. I guess you can say I chickened out.
My bet on the shipping industry also fell flat on its face after assuming that global trade would recover eventually, and I bailed out after the US presidential elections, knowing that protectionism is going to be the new economic fad. $NAT (-43.77%), $SFL (-15.91%), $TNK (-38.60%).
$DG (-19.75%), I realized my research on their diversification to the market outside of selling games was wrong, and pulled the plug as the stock continued to fall.
$CVS (-5.76%), uh, I jumped in right after it fell due to a poor earnings report, betting that it was a mere overreaction. Without doing much research. Big. Mistake.
It continued to fall until I decided to cut my loss. That was the last time I would make that type of post-earnings bet without doing D&D first.
Overall trend, I went up by about 6% total portfolio gain, fell to -2% total loss, and went back to 6% within the span of 11 months. My buy-and-hold Roth IRA account had a total gain of about 7%, with about 50% of it being in REITs (ARI, NRZ, OHI, VNQ) before I started diluting the percentage with my 2017 contributions in other ETFs to max out the $5,500 limit. Maybe that's telling me something...
Submitted February 08, 2017 at 06:18PM by COMPUTER1313 http://ift.tt/2lpDzTU
